![[Flame of Tar Valon]](pics/flame.gif)
The White Tower Conflict
The White Tower ConflictThis is a try to give a political, legal and military analysis for the White Tower Conflict, and to give a political context for it. I also point out some of the possible actions that can be made by the participants, and possible resolutions, even though this is often speculative at best.
I have avoided any lengthy discussions of the moral or ethical problems, except where they are likely to influence the actions of the participants. Likewise, I will not deal with Halima/Aran'gar, but simply assume that Egwene will get free from her without weakening her own position.
It is important to note that I use the terms reactionary, and revolutionary in the European meanings, not the American. None of the terms should be understood as comments on real-world politics.
For simplicity's sake, I will refer to the AS who gathered in Salidar or are connected with them as the Salidar AS (SAS), even though they are no longer there. The AS following Elaida I refer to as the Tower AS (TAS).
There are at least two ways to analyse and understand the White Tower Coup and the White Tower Conflict. One can either view the conflict as an Ajah conflict, a conflict between the Blue and the Red Ajah (the Traditional view), or as a conflict between two wholly different viewpoints of the Tower's role and reason of being (the Revolutionary view).
Both views have their different strengths and weaknesses. The Traditional is without question the view that dominates among the participants, and it is straightforward in judging the capabilities of the opponents. On the other hand, it cannot give a wholly satisfactory answer on how the Coup could gain sufficient support to be launched and succeed, barring very extensive Black Ajah infiltration of almost all Ajahs. Worse, it cannot explain why the AS gathered in Salidar could seriously consider accepting Elaida as Amyrlin.
The Revolutionary view gives good answers to these questions, but as it is a purely political viewpoint, it cannot address the military aspects of the conflict. This view is also virtually unknown among the participants, with the possible exception of Egwene and her inner circle.
As I hope to make clear further on, the conflict is at the core an ideological, ie political, one - not military, legal or springing from a simple power struggle. As such, while a military solution might end the direct conflict, the underlying factors would still remain.
The answer will in part depend on who is asked.
Personal animosity towards Siuan, as well as the reasons for the Red Ajah. She is also convinced she, and only she, can lead the Tower to victory in Tarman Gai'don.
Views themselves as the only Ajah capable of handling Rand as a male channeler. Old revanchism against the Blues.
Reaction against long Blue dominance.
The coup was a reactionary act, supported by many Aes Sedai due to fear of a new and different Tower. It was feared that Siuan with her actions regarding Rand would make the Tower a secondary, subject power in the world. It was feared that the Tower would have to diminish its influence in the world, and change its policies.
The Aes Sedai gathered in Salidar all (well, almost all) share this fear, the reason they opposed Elaida was that they viewed her coming to power as immoral and unjust. Even though they on the whole had a more open view of the Tower's roles, it is not that much different from Elaida's.
This view is further reinforced by the inner workings in both the SAS and the TAS. The TAS moved towards the first who claimed to have all the answers, ie Elaida and the Red Ajah. The SAS had their decisiveness crippled because of faction in-fighting and reluctance to make any decisive actions. Both are common real-world responses when groups are suddenly faced with unknown situations.
Ironically enough, by launching the coup, Elaida forced the emergence of a true force dedicated to changing the Tower. We will explore this later.
With ACoS, we finally have some real facts on the legalities concerning the Amyrlin. Two points can become important in this regard.
First, to depose an Amyrlin it is required that eleven Sitters and that all Ajahs but the Amyrlin's former one are present. The Hall which deposed Elaida was probably close or very close to these requirements when Siuan was deposed, and so the presence of even a few members of the Black Ajah[1] should be sufficient to make that decision illegal.
Second, and more interesting: to choose an Amyrlin all Ajahs must be represented in the Hall[2], and neither Egwene nor Elaida fulfills that requirement. One interesting possibility here is if Pevara, the Red Sitter encountered in [ACoS, Sealed to the Flame] gives her support to Egwene, and that Egwene organises a last and third round in her raising to the Amyrlin Seat, with Pevara standing for her. This should greatly strengthen Egwene's legal claims and authority, both among the SAS and other AS.
Dave Rothgery have noted that Teslyn, the Red Sitter that Elaida forced from the Hall and sent to Ebou Dar, might switch sides and join Egwene. She could then play the same role as Pevara. It would though not be as strong, since she is not presently a Sitter. She also doesn't have the direct connection into the Tower that Pevara has.
According to the traditional view, the two sides are the SAS, currently marching northward through Murandy towards Tar Valon under Egwene and the TAS, who are in possession of the White Tower and Tar Valon, and are under the leadership of Elaida.
I see Elaida's goals as twofold: strengthen the political power and influence of the AS and controlling Rand. She is also very interested in maintaining her personal power over the AS, uniting the Tower under her leadership. Her vision of the Tower is a strong Tower, keeping itself at a distance from the "common" world while still dominating it. She has also developed strong megalomaniac tendencies, as evidenced in ACoS.
This is by far the SAS's greatest weakness. Their vision of the Tower is very similar to Elaida's, only a bit less extreme. They also view Rand as one who must be controlled. While opposing Elaida, they have no political alternative.
The factions in Salidar led by Sheriam, Romanda and Lelaine we know little about, by my hunch feeling is that their goals are very similar; what defines them is largely personal animosity and maybe different views on how Elaida should be handled. Nothing in ACoS has given any reason to change that assessment.
Using this view the conflict doesn't really go between the SAS and the TAS but rather between a group of the SAS and just about every other AS. This group I call the Open Tower faction.
This faction is by far the smallest and least powerful of the forces involved in the conflict. Worse yet, it might not be aware of its own existence. It consists of Egwene and her associates, ie Elayne, Nynaeve, Siuan, Leane, Faolain and Theodrin. Their (or, more accurately, Egwene's) defining political views are:
The first and second views are very dissimilar from the standard AS view of themselves and the world (first comes the AS, then nothing, then nothing and then comes other people). The acceptance of male channelers and acceptance of Rand's authority has very probably not been defined, but by freeing Logain in [LoC, Weaves of the Power], Egwene shows it in practice. The last point is said straight out in [ACoS, An Oath].
Another, maybe even more revolutionary change, is that both Egwene, Nynaeve and Elayne intends to marry and form families. They will not become "all AS", but will create a private sphere. This is especially important in Egwene's position as Amyrlin.
Elaida has currently around 300-400 Aes Sedai loyal to her, with a relatively low number of Warders (as a great share of her AS are Reds, together with a [presumably] relatively low number of Greens), probably around 200-300. She also have the Tar Valon guards numbering 3-4 000 troops. OTOH, a great number of the TAS are now outside of Elaida's control, after Dumai's Wells and the upcoming raid on the Black Tower.
The remains of the force sent to capture Rand is camped outside Tar Valon. They consists of thirteen AS, some two hundred members of the Younglings under Gawyn Trakand, probably joined by the few hundred Younglings who didn't participate in the expedition due to lack of training, and was expelled from Tar Valon by Elaida.
The TAS has control over the Red, Green, Gray and Yellow eyes-and-ears networks, and probably also have control over the Brown too. It should be noted that the information from these networks is filtered through Alviarin, which effectively means the Black Ajah and Mesaana.
Elaida has, while being forced by Alviarin, ordered the Tower Guards to be reinforced before the arrival of the SAS. It is unlikely that this reinforcement will go on long enough to become a factor in the conflict.
Egwene has about as many Aes Sedai as Elaida, probably with a higher count of Warders, and she has not suffered the losses the TAS has. She also has an army of more than 20 000 troops under the command of Gareth Bryne. She controls eyes-and-ears of the Blue Ajah, together with the Amyrlin's and the Keeper's. Coupled with Siuan's and Leane's knowledge as well as access to T'A'R, they probably has more political knowledge and intelligence assets than the TAS. Egwene can maybe also obtain military support from Rand, though it will lead to great creditability and political problems, strongly limiting its practical usage. On the other hand, it is very good for intimidation purposes as a threat-in-being. The greatest military asset for the SAS is though their knowledge of Traveling, enabling them to arrive to Tar Valon at will.
Even though the SAS army is newly formed, it has the benefit of one of the best commanders alive, Gareth Bryne, and a very competent cadre in the form of the Warders, Uno's Shienarans and Bryne's old under-officers. As such, it should prove a reliable fighting force, even though it isn't on the same class as, eg, the Band of the Red Hand.
In a crisis situation, Egwene might be able to muster support from the Band of the Red Hand, which under command of Lord Talmanes trails the SAS. They number about 10 000 troops, many of them veterans, with experienced leaders.
Elaida maintains a very hard leadership policy. She probably has close to 100% support from the Red Ajah, but there is growing dissatisfaction in the Yellow and Green Ajahs. The loyalties of the Brown, Whites and Grays are less well defined. The real influence of the Black Ajah is unknown, but should at least be as large as Elaida's.
Elaida shows several psychological traits that can become a factor in the conflict. She has been under the influence of Padan Fain, to what effects (except an extreme anti-Rand posture) we do not know. She does view herself as the very embodiment of the White Tower, and as the only person capable of leading the world in Tarman Gai'don and controlling Rand. Her disregarding of any person's capability if not being Aes Sedai leads her to neglect important intelligence.
The White Tower Coup could probably not have succeeded or even contemplated without the under-cover influence of the Black Ajah. As the strategic goals of these are unknown, they can very well change their support to Egwene, or chose to go for full control of the TAS, supplanting Elaida. In all probability, the Black Ajah has more members and influence among the TAS than in the SAS. The Black Ajah is known to have great influence with the Red (Galina, the head of the Reds, is Black, but currently a captive of Sevanna and the Shaido) and Whites (Alviarin was likely a high-ranking White before becoming Keeper), making their support critical for Elaida. Elaida also states in the [ACoS, Lightnings] that she can't trust Alviarin to fulfill her orders or give her full information from the various Eyes-and-Ears of the Ajah's, and in [ACoS, Sealed to the Flame] she takes actions in order to ensure Alviarin's removal from her position as Keeper.
Egwene was very young and only an Accepted when raised Amyrlin, which severely restricts her authority. Also, there are three factions (Sheriam's, Romanda's and Lelaine's) among the SAS, with great claims for influence and power. In [ACoS, A Morning of Victory] she had though forced Myrelle into her service, and was in the process of breaking Sheriam's faction.
While this should strengthen Egwene's internal position considerably, it would remain delicate. She still has to take into consideration the possibility of a Black Ajah among the SAS, and it is very unlikely she can make every AS in Salidar swear fealty to her. And even though Myrelle is the head of the Green SAS, using Myrelle to force the Green Sitters to support her is likely to cause a backlash. The same is true for the other high-ranking AS in Sheriam's former faction. It would probably be viewed by Lelaine and Romanda as that Sheriam now had taken control over Egwene, and thus they would act to remove Egwene from the Amyrlin Seat.
The most influential Ajah among the SAS is the Blue, but there are also probably sisters loyal to Elaida[3] that joined the SAS on Elaida's orders. Tarna, the Red emissary to the SAS, states in her report that 100 of the SAS are ready to join Elaida, but that figure is probably too high (the "Bay of Pigs" syndrome, which is also confirmed by Alviarin in [ACoS, Lightnings]).
Due to the timing of events, Egwene's formal and legal claims to the Amyrlin Seat are less secure than Elaida's (not that either have fully legitimate claims). Elaida is also in possession of the White Tower, and in this case possession is certainly nine tenths of the law. Support from Rand is critical for the SAS legitimacy, but the embassy sent to Rand before Egwene's rising has been a major failure. This can, however, strengthen Egwene's position towards Romanda's and Lelaine's factions as showing that she is the only one who can deal safely with Rand. But, it will also make it harder for Egwene to gain support from Rand, and it also carries the risks of many SAS panicking, throwing down Egwene. But, through her actions when faced with the rumours of Rand swearing fealty to Elaida and her gaining Sheriam's faction, this is a rather unlikely possibility.
Egwene has two strong facts on her side, if she can reveal and prove them: the Black Ajah and the Red's activity in stilling male channelers outside Tower Law. If she can reveal Alviarin as a Black Ajah, or prove extensive Black Ajah influence among the Red's, the chances are very great that large numbers of AS loyal to Elaida will change allegiance to her. The revealing of the Red's activity with regard to male channelers will probably not give that great effects, but is easier to show, as Thom Merrilin probably has some knowledge of it.
Until and unless Egwene has gained the support from Pevara or another Red, she can though not use the argument that Elaida is an unlawful Amyrlin, since it would strike both ways.
We know very little substantial about the Black Ajah, but we have several hints, and we have some very interesting notions on its development.
First, we know that the Black Ajah has great influence among the Tower Aes Sedai. Besides Alviarin and Galina, Elaida has assessed that Alviarin controls or greatly influences six Sitters, as many as herself. This doesn't imply that as many as one third of the TAS is Black Ajah, but it gives away an organisational change, and a change of purpose of the Black Ajah. This is reinforced by Galina's and Katerine's dialogue in the [LoC, The First Message]. The Black Ajah is, at least in Tar Valon, centralising and changing its organisation from an infiltration-centered, cell-based one to one that can take decisive, concerted actions. This process made the Coup possible, in giving the BA enough strength to support Elaida's claims, and now continues in order to strengthen its influence even more.
Second, this reshaping of their organisation could not, and can not, be made without active Forsaken support. It does not imply that the Blacks are aware of Mesaana's presence in the Tower, or even that they know the commands they get comes from a Forsaken. It does imply, even though it is uncertain, that the Forsaken are trying to take direct command of the White Tower. It does imply that the White Tower Coup had support from the Forsaken.
But we lack the most crucial item: what is the DO's and the Forsaken's (or more specifically the DO's and Mesaana's) goals with the Black Ajah? Given their influence and strength as we know of them, at least uses are possible:
Paralyse the White Tower through prolonging the conflict between Salidar and the Tower. But this would best be done among the SAS, not among the TAS, and we know of only one influential BA (Delana) among them.
More subtle, change allegiance to Egwene, thus destroying Elaida's position. In the process, try to gain such positions among the SAS that they can cripple their work, and in such a way that all other TAS are discredited. This is rather unlikely, IMO. I can see Ishamael favouring this way, but no other Forsaken, even though it seems that Mesaana could use it.
Full break with the Tower, effectively becoming a true Dreadlord force. This is probably a last resort, since it would not only end the Tower Conflict, it would provide Egwene and the SAS, as well as Rand, with a clear enemy.
The Black Ajah's main weakness is command and control. There seems to have been a struggle for control between Galina and Alviarin, and as long as the Forsaken control things from behind, no real authority exists.
After Sammael's actions in [ACoS, Spears], the remaining Shaido are spread out from Illian to Ghealdan. They are unlikely to prove more than a nuisance factor to Egwene and her army, but one group is critical: Sevanna and her closest WOs, because they are holding Galina captive.
If Egwene can secure Galina, she will not only gain important information on Elaida and the Reds in general, but much more importantly she will gain a strong opening to the BA. This will include their organisation, important members but maybe most important: knowledge about their role in the Coup.
There is around 2-300 AS (eg a large part of the Blue Ajah), mostly individuals, who have not yet sided with either part of the conflict. If either side manages to win the loyalty of a large part of these it will be a major moral and legal claims victory. But probably they will not become a factor in the conflict. So much time has went from the Coup that the AS who have not yet chosen sides probably will not reveal themselves until the conflict has been settled.
Cadsuane is arguably the one AS who can make the single greatest impact in the conflict, due to her strength, her experience and her reputation. The possible actions, if any, she will take are though hard to assess. First and foremost, she regards Elaida as the lawful Amyrlin, even though she regards her as "a catastrophe simmering" [ACoS, Diamonds and Stars], and her view of the SAS is very negative.
As such, she is unlikely to lend her support to either side. This is also reinforced with that her primary interest is Rand and the Asha'man, not the White Tower. This means that Egwene is unlikely to come in contact with her before she has succeeded in throwing down Elaida, since Egwene must first deal with Elaida before she can turn any serious attention to Rand.
My conclusion is that Cadsuane will not become a factor in the conflict.
Gawyn and the Younglings have so far been loyal to the TAS, but the recent attempt of destroying them with the help of the Shaidos can force them to change sides. Gawyn also have strong personal loyalties to Egwene, and even stronger to Elayne, who definitively have the force to command him to change side or disband the Younglings. Min's vision about Gawyn kneeling to Egwene or breaking her neck seems to imply that Egwene can not succeed without the support of Gawyn.
Rand has absolutely no desire for Elaida as Amyrlin, and he will probably support Egwene. If this goes to more than lip service is though very uncertain. Also, Egwene will and can probably not accept military help from Rand, even less an intervention from his part. The AS, Tower Guards and Younglings captured at Dumai's Wells is though a critical asset for Egwene if she is given responsibility for them. By releasing them, she can show she does not want bloodshed, giving hope for the TAS who are dissatisfied with Elaida. If some of them joins Egwene, this is a strong claim for her as Amyrlin. The extent of damage the SAS failed embassy has done to Egwene gaining Rand's support is still unknown.
The alternative actions Rand can take are:
Rand does himself attack Elaida and the TAS, with the goal of down-throwing her. Most likely as a revenge plot for their capture of him, but something he probably will not do given ACoS. If he does, it will though destroy every possibility of the SAS supporting him, and make Egwene's position as Amyrlin impossible.
Insisting on that Egwene is to accept the "help" of Asha'man and other troops under Rand's command in deposing Elaida, as well as giving "advice". Egwene probably will not, and she can not accept this, which can detoriate relations even further.
Rand publicly acclaims Egwene as the true Amyrlin, and possibly hands the captured Aes Sedai and Warders from Dumai's Wells to her. This can probably be more effective in intimidating Elaida than the previous alternative (fulfilled threats are almost always less intimidating than lingering ones). The most intelligent alternative, but probably unlikely to happen.
Rand keeps the AS and Warders, and leaves Egwene to deal with Elaida without his support or interference. The most likely alternative, mostly due to the pacing of events.
Moiraine is in the Tower of Ghenji and in all probability not dead, although her current status is unknown. If (when) she is saved, she will certainly join Egwene or re-attach herself to Rand. Her moral value for the SAS is very high, and she is also gives opportunities for normalising relations between AS and Rand as the only "real" Aes Sedai who can be said to have her primary loyalty to Rand. OTOH, many AS, even Blues, will probably view her with suspicion as untrustworty. Her coming back would though strengthen Egwene's group, since she is ideologically as well as personally close to it, and her status is very high.
It is unlikely she will appear in time to have a real effect on the resolution, though.
If Elaida finds the Horn of Valere hidden in the White Tower, much will depend on if Mat still is tied to it. If he is and Elaida decides to use it, the failure can be enough to make the other TAS to give up. If he is not, Egwene will be in major trouble. As Siuan "knows" that Mat is tied to the Horn, she can rather easily disarm a threat-in-being from Elaida of using the Horn ("Just blow it, you mud-drenched fish carcass of a Red!"). Of course, that carries the risk that Mat may currently be untied from the Horn (something which Siuan does not know).
While I am sure that Egwene in the long run will try to integrate the Kin into her "new Tower", I doubt they will be a factor in the current, open conflict, especially as a group. The first and foremost reason for this is that they are not Aes Sedai. Since normal AS normally disregard any non-AS "meddling" in AS business, this means that they won't add anything to Egwene's political credibility or stature.
That does not mean the Kin are worthless, but they are more likely to be used against the Seanchan, and later as a core for building a new Tower around, after the open conflict is over.
The SAS have developed very dynamically, drastically increasing the number of Novices. Due to Egwene's, Elayne's and Nynaeve's discoveries, and the support from Gareth Bryne they probably have a good moral. On the other hand, order and hygiene in Tar Valon has detoriated under Elaida, and there is probably grumblings about Elaida's leadership in most Ajahs as well as in the Tower Guards. This can work in Egwene's advantage, but it is an advantage that can be easily lost.
The most important single factor is probably though Seaine and Pevara, who in my estimation will prove critical in the future development. Their mission to uncover the BA means that in reality they are ordered to investigate the BA actions during the Coup, and they have more or less been directly targeted against Alviarin, who just happens to be the head of the BA.
Much will depend on what they chose to investigate, but two options seem likely. The first is that they intend to search for documents which contain lies, and there is one document that is certain to do so: the report from the interrogation of Siuan. Alviarin led that interrogation, with the known help of Galina, so it's likely that all the AS participating were BA. And during the interrogation, Siuan constantly included her knowledge of the BA. But for this to become a factor, contact must first be made with Siuan.
The second and probably more important is that any investigation of recent events should include Gawyn and the Younglings, which could provide Seaine and Pevara with a link to Egwene and Siuan.
I am convinced that these two will be instrumental in Egwene gaining power in Tar Valon and the Tower.
There are, as I can see it, four ways the conflict can be resolved, with the exclusion of full-scale Rand interference. They are armed force, commando raid, counter-coup, and court of appeal.
This means either a full-scale siege or battle of Tar Valon. It will undoubtedly lead to the death of several AS and major destruction in Tar Valon and the White Tower. Egwene is very reluctant of a such solution, and as she has a much greater military potential (due to her relation to Rand), Elaida is probably wary of seeking battle. So, not very likely, but the threat of an powerful army is important in both diplomacy and intimidation, and a low-intensity siege of Tar Valon will give Egwene a diplomatic edge, as well as helping in preventing AS from escaping Tar Valon.
This alternative using Warders and AS to capture or kill key characters of the other side. The SAS's capability of this is considerably higher, due to the higher number of Warders and the knowledge of Traveling. But there is no guarantee that this will break the other side's resistance, and will very probably means the killing of AS, so Egwene are probably reluctant towards this resolution. Elaida has less doubts, but she will have major difficulties in mounting such a raid.
Egwene have theories that Eladia are systematically working on weakening the SAS's resistance to herself as Amyrlin. The same strategy has be adopted by the SAS (or rather, Sheriam's faction), probably concentrating on the Yellow and Green Ajahs, with the goal of interior conflict, and ultimately a palace coup. Seaine and Pevara can become a strong factor here. It is probably the solution that will make the reunification of the Tower easiest, but will probably take long time, time that Egwene does not have. If Egwene can manage to reveal the Black Ajah in the White Tower, gains support from Pevara and Seaine or reveals the Red's activities with male channelers, this solution will though become much more feasible. The most probable solution, IMHO, maybe in connection with a commando raid directed against Alviarin, Elaida and the sitters.
Leaving the resolution to a third part is possible, but not likely. Elaida, who wants to restore the power of AS, is probably reluctant to let third parties meddle with AS business, even less have power over AS. Egwene has less principal objections, but as her legitimate standing is less secure, this will make her avoid this resolution. Also, the only third-party with even the remotest chance to be accepted by both parties is the Ogier, making the resolution a very long and tedious business.
This is assuming that Black sisters will be deemed as losing their status as AS retroactively. Given how convoluted things can be in the White Tower, this might not be the case, but I think it will be.
From the glossary entry [ACoS, Hall of the Tower, the]:
There are two levels of agreement that may be required for items to pass the Hall, the lesser consensus and the greater consensus. The greater consensus requires that every sister who is present must stand, and that a minimum of eleven Sitters be present; the presence of at least one Sitter from each Ajah is also required, except when the matter before the Hall is the removal of an Amyrlin or Keeper [...] The lesser consensus also requires a quorum of eleven Sitters, but only two-thirds of those present need stand for an item to pass.
From the raising of Egwene to the Amyrlin Seat in [LoC, In the Hall of the Sitters] we know that to raise an Amyrlin, an unanimous vote is required - which means the greater consensus - which means that every Ajah must be present.
And it should be perfectly clear that there was no Blue Sitter present when Elaida was raised Amyrlin.
See also the CoS prologue summary that was made after the East of the Sun convention, June 1995.
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Karl-Johan Norén,
kjnoren@hem3.passagen.se